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BACKGROUND
Debate rages among academics and investment professionals over whether it's possible to consistently "beat the market." At one extreme, the Efficient Markets theory posits that because stock prices reflect all investor knowledge and expectation, picking stocks or forecasting market direction is futile. Also known as the Random Walk Theory, this much-disputed hypothesis suggests that a monkey throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal has as much chance to outperform the market as the most highly esteemed analyst.
Those who believe it is theoretically possible to beat the market fall into two camps: Fundamental analysts and technicians. The legendary Warren Buffett is the quintessential fundamental analyst who pours over a company's books and interviews management in a painstaking attempt to determine the"intrinsic value" of an enterprise. Technicians believe that historical price movements can be used to predict future price movements. Because technical analysts also rely heavily on intuition and interpretation in their predictions, it is impossible to prove or disprove the predictive power of any charting system.
WHERE WE STAND
We borrow from both schools in making investment decisions and constructing portfolios. With regard to the Efficient Markets Theory, evidence suggests that in the aggregate and over the long term, markets are highly efficient, i.e., 90% of the variation among investment portfolios historically has been caused by allocation decisions among asset classes. Therefore, we think most investors are best served by broad diversification among asset classes and specific securities.
Because clients vary widely in their risk tolerance, we assess each client’s attitudes toward risk and tailor a portfolio with an appropriate level of risk. Implemented through a diversified mix of stocks, mutual funds, and fixed-income securities, the focus is on total portfolio return over the long term.
Although it's a relatively small proportion, the 10% of portfolio variation that can be attributed to security selection and market timing can still have a meaningful effect on overall return. Therefore, we consider a wide variety of historical financial data and projections to determine how the company, asset class, and/or sector is valued relative to its peers and the market as a whole. Assuming we find the value proposition attractive, we use multiple, statistically-based technical indicators to determine a favorable entry point, both in terms of price and market conditions.
METHODOLOGY
Our investment discipline involves four steps:
1. Economic and Market Overview: We assess the prevailing conditions in the economy and financial markets using econometric data provided by a variety of sources, both public and private. We evaluate numerous technical, monetary, valuation and sentiment indicators to determine the particular risk-reward characteristics of the prevailing market environment.
2. Asset Allocation: Our assessment of prevailing market conditions determines our overall allocation among asset classes such as domestic stocks, international stocks, bonds, and government securities. We track estimates of future average long-term performance of approximately two dozen asset classes using proprietary data supplied by Advisory World, Inc. of Van Nuys, CA.
3. Portfolio Optimization: We assign each portfolio a risk-return target based on each client's particular investment objectives and risk tolerance. Our risk-return targets may shift periodically as market conditions change. For example, during unfavorable market conditions, overall portfolio volatility may be lowered by shifting some assets to less risky asset classes.
4. Security Selection and Timing: A specific mix of securities is recommended to implement the client's investment program pursuant to our fundamental and technical screening criteria. Accounts are reviewed and if necessary, rebalanced, quarterly or as necessitated by changing personal circumstances or market conditions.
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